US dollar falls; base metal: overseas market outperforms domestic market; alumina and lithium carbonate lead gains; polysilicon rises nearly 5% [SMM midday review]

SMM reported on July 8:

Metal market updates:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally declined, with SHFE copper and SHFE aluminum rising slightly by less than 0.1%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%, SHFE lead dropped 0.58%, SHFE zinc declined 0.83%, and SHFE tin decreased 0.32%.

Additionally, alumina main contract futures rose 1.59%, while casting aluminum main contract gained 0.33%. Lithium carbonate rose 1.48%, silicon metal climbed 1.81%, and polysilicon surged 4.82%.

Ferrous metals series mostly rose: iron ore gained 0.55%, rebar remained flat at 3,067 yuan/mt, HRC edged higher, and stainless steel increased 0.51%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.66%, coke gained 0.14%.

Overseas metals: As of 11:46, LME metals generally rose, with LME copper down 0.01% and LME aluminum up 0.19%. LME nickel fell 0.24%, LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin increased 0.2%, and LME lead gained 0.17%.

Precious metals: As of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.04%, COMEX silver rose 0.3%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.36%, and SHFE silver rose 0.17%.

The most-traded EC futures contract surged 5.92% to 1,983.1 points as of the midday close.

Partial futures market data as of 11:46 on July 8:

》July 8 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot & Fundamentals

Copper: According to SMM, the June 2025 operating rate of SMM copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises stood at 67.44%, down 2.68 percentage points MoM and 0.12 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of large enterprises... 》Click for detailsZ15/>Macro Front

Domestic updates:

[Hong Kong SFC: Expanding Southbound Bond Connect participants to include securities firms, insurance companies, wealth management, and asset management firms] Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) CEO Julia Leung delivered a speech titled "Three-Pronged Strategy to Develop Hong Kong as an Offshore RMB Center" at the 2025 Bond Connect Anniversary Forum. Leung stated the People's Bank of China and Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced optimizations including expanding Southbound Bond Connect participants to securities firms, insurance companies, wealth management, and asset management firms; and enhancing offshore RMB bond repo operations by allowing bond repledging during repo transactions.

[PBOC conducts net liquidity withdrawal of 62 billion yuan via open market operations today] The People's Bank of China conducted 6.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 13.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net liquidity withdrawal reached 6.2 billion yuan.

►On July 8, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1534 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar side:

As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell by 0.25% to 97.31. According to the CCTV News app, on July 7 local time, US President Trump stated at a White House dinner reception for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding tariff issues that the effective date for "reciprocal tariffs" had been set for August 1, but it was not 100% certain. If countries proposed different plans, he would be open to other ideas. Earlier on July 7, US President Trump indicated that he would impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting from August 1. He sequentially posted letters he wrote to the leaders of 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand, on his self-founded "Truth Social" website, explaining the reasons for the tariffs and stating that the new tariffs would not include tariffs on other industries. The US tariff policy has heightened inflation concerns, complicating the path for the US Fed to cut interest rates. The market expects that the minutes of the US Fed's June meeting, to be released on Wednesday, should provide more clues about the Fed's policy outlook. A joint paper released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco stated that despite the current relatively high level of short-term borrowing costs, there is still a possibility that the US Fed will cut interest rates again to near-zero levels at some point in the coming years.

Other currencies:

The latest data released by the Japanese government reveals a concerning reality: in May this year, Japan's real wages recorded the largest decline in nearly two years, with inflation remaining persistently high and far outpacing wage growth. This not only dealt a heavy blow to the purchasing power of Japanese households but also cast a shadow over the prospects for Japan's economic recovery. (Huitong Finance)

Data:

Today, data such as the 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for June in the US, the 1-year gold price increase expectation of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for June in the US, Japan's May trade balance - seasonally adjusted by the central bank based on customs data, Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending July 6, Australia's cash rate for July 8, Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly export rate for May, France's May trade balance, and Canada's June IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI will be released. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Crude Oil:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with U.S. crude down 0.47% and Brent down 0.39% as of 11:46 a.m. Markets assessed new developments including U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ alliance's unexpected production increase in August, which weighed on oil prices.

However, there are signs that current demand remains robust, particularly in the U.S., providing support and limiting the decline in oil prices. AAA data last week showed a record-breaking 72.2 million Americans are expected to travel more than 50 miles (80 km) during the Independence Day holiday. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed that fund managers increased their net long positions in U.S. crude oil futures and options during the week ending July 1, with investors turning bullish on crude ahead of the holiday. Speculators raised their combined net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude oil futures and options by 8,820 lots to 115,063 lots during the period, per the data. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►June copper plate/sheet and strip operating rate continued to decline; 'off-season test' persists [SMM Analysis]

►Z36/>Copper prices continued to pull back amid weak demand; spot premiums continued to decline [SMM South China Copper Spot]

►Delivery approaching as downstream players press prices; spot premiums/discounts center moves lower [SMM North China Copper Spot]

►Tianjin zinc: Futures pull back further while trading activity improves slightly [SMM Noon Review]

►Scarce low-priced offers push spot prices up slightly [SMM EMM Daily Review]

Other metal spot market noon reviews will be updated later; please refresh to view~